Monday, March 28, 2011
Editorial

For all the accusations of a lack of regional expertise Hillary Clinton may be ripe to attract, no one can charge her with failing to grasp Middle Eastern realpolitick. As the secretary of state so concisely pointed out over the weekend, Syria is not Libya.

Bashar Assad presides over the best-connected administration in the region. For years, Damascus has basked in its significant influence among Arab states. More recently, it has saddled up to Turkey and regained the trust of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Unlike his friendless Libyan counterpart, Assad has always enjoyed neighborly support, as well as a loyal electorate.

With that second comfort apparently waning, Clinton was quick to rule out Libyan-style international airstrikes against Assad’s regime. Assad himself has promised a range of sweeping reforms, including greater freedom of expression, a more transparent media and crackdowns on graft and oppression to try and placate an increasingly irked citizenry.

It is imperative that such lofty reform plans come to fruition in a timely and transparent manner. The people of Syria, who have lived under the cloud of emergency law since 1963, have grown weary of hollow reform pledges bellowed out by a monolithic government, only to see the country slide further and further into corruption and incivility.

Pronouncements of all manner of foreign or internal conspiracies against the regime need avoiding. If the events of recent months have taught regional leaders nothing else, it is that a discontented populace cannot be assuaged by harebrained plot talk.

What was feasible 30 years ago, as information control and judicious propaganda usage had credulous civilians swallowing whatever news was deemed appropriate for their ears, is no longer possible today. As well as the advent of 24-hour news coverage, the internet and social media, Arab populations, following Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings, no longer have a world view letterboxed by fear. 
The secret to containing popular protest, as Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak comprehended far too late, is to counter it with honesty, not deceit; with actions, not words.

Failure by Assad and his government to make good on its promises will result in a civilian backlash inextinguishable by any amount of scaremongering. It may be easier to blame discontent on the machinations of a fictional foe, but such obfuscation no longer holds water and could well spill blood.

With the United States rightly calling that Assad and his regime still enjoy broad regional acceptance, it is to be hoped that decision makers in Damascus can take the right steps to rebuild domestic support.